Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 9.283988e-05 0.000112 0.000132 0.000156 0.000182 0.000209 0.000241
2024-10-13 6.988980e-05 0.000094 0.000122 0.000156 0.000195 0.000238 0.000289
2024-10-20 5.477016e-05 0.000081 0.000112 0.000152 0.000199 0.000253 0.000318
2024-10-27 4.470297e-05 0.000072 0.000107 0.000153 0.000209 0.000275 0.000355
2024-11-03 3.311586e-05 0.000060 0.000095 0.000143 0.000203 0.000276 0.000367
2024-11-10 2.995409e-05 0.000058 0.000097 0.000151 0.000220 0.000305 0.000412
2024-11-17 2.370590e-05 0.000051 0.000090 0.000146 0.000221 0.000313 0.000432
2024-11-24 1.790213e-05 0.000043 0.000082 0.000140 0.000219 0.000318 0.000447
2024-12-01 1.384415e-05 0.000038 0.000077 0.000136 0.000219 0.000325 0.000464
2024-12-08 1.062810e-05 0.000033 0.000072 0.000133 0.000220 0.000333 0.000483
2024-12-15 7.752018e-06 0.000028 0.000066 0.000128 0.000218 0.000336 0.000495
2024-12-22 5.814390e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000126 0.000220 0.000344 0.000514
2024-12-29 3.597360e-06 0.000021 0.000059 0.000126 0.000229 0.000368 0.000559
2025-01-05 2.026024e-06 0.000018 0.000055 0.000126 0.000238 0.000392 0.000607
2025-01-12 8.868880e-07 0.000014 0.000050 0.000123 0.000240 0.000406 0.000641
2025-01-19 3.831085e-07 0.000012 0.000048 0.000124 0.000250 0.000430 0.000689
2025-01-26 3.456580e-08 0.000008 0.000041 0.000115 0.000243 0.000431 0.000704
2025-02-02 8.422363e-09 0.000008 0.000042 0.000122 0.000262 0.000468 0.000770
2025-02-09 NaN 0.000006 0.000038 0.000118 0.000263 0.000479 0.000800
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000004 0.000033 0.000113 0.000261 0.000487 0.000824
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000003 0.000030 0.000109 0.000261 0.000497 0.000852
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000002 0.000027 0.000107 0.000263 0.000509 0.000884
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000001 0.000024 0.000102 0.000262 0.000516 0.000907